I did 14 miles with the last 5 at marathon effort today. I've done this 4 times.
.............7 Feb....15 Feb...6 Mar....11 Apr
Mile 10.... 7:49/150 7:31/160 7:28/166 7:32/158
Mile 11.... 7:41/160 7:41/164 7:38/169 7:31/163
Mile 12.... 7:37/157 7:27/167 7:21/168 7:23/165
Mile 13.... 7:30/169 7:46/170 7:52/171 7:39/169
Mile 14.... 7:23/167 7:24/171 7:45/172 7:46/169
Miles 10-14 7:38/161 7:34/166 7:36/168 7:34/165
Miles 1-14. 8:40/145 8:27/149 8:19/153 8:22/149
(I threw out mile 1 in calculating avg hr for miles 1-14 since it's screwy in the first mile before I break a sweat.)
What does this say? I'm not sure. 7 Feb blows away the others to the extent that I wonder if my HRM was working (or maybe I was on EPO). Today was much better than 6 March and better than 15 Feb as well. I ran this more like I would the first 5 miles of a marathon. This was a sustainable pace. I can't get hit 170 that early like in the previous runs or I'd end in a death march.
The overall result is somewhat discouraging because I need my Garmin pace to be ~7:22 to run 7:27 and I only averaged 7:34. My route is quite hilly though. I'll shoot the race director if Frederick is that hilly. I'd show you the Garmin data but GPS altitude absolutely sucks. (My T6 had an awesome baro altimeter.) Besides the hopefully better terrain, I think I still have some room for improvement with my little bit of sharpening planned. Still if the weather is the least bit warm then I'm screwed. You have to love the marathon.
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