I signed up for a 10k today. It was kind of impetuous I suppose, but the schedule in Brad Hudson book had a 10k tune-up for this weekend, and that sounded like fun. Plus, I'm curious about how I'll do after yesterday's intervals.
What time will I run? I don't know. My official 10k PR is something like 47:21 believe it or not. I've only started three that I can recall: 50:XX, 47:21, and DNF. My 10k split from Cherry Blossom was 42:55 and I'm quite sure the marker was accurate. Mcmillan says my 10M PR at CB is worth 41:04.
I'm not familiar with the 10k course. Last time I was supposed to run this course was Feb of 07 I think. It was covered in ice though, so they re-routed, and I DNF'd (pulled hamstring anyway). I think the course is pretty fair though. According to the magnificent course map drawn by the talented Robert Thurston, the high point is 21 meters and the low is 4. That's about 50 feet, which is not pancake flat, but pretty flat unless we roll up and down that a bunch. The forecast says 60 degrees, which is a little warm for my Swedish blood, but it's only 10k.
I think I can run sub-41 (gee, I'm ambitious), but based on those intervals I might do much better. I was hitting low 180s (bpm) on the last of the mile repeats at 6:31 - 6:34 per 1600. That's more like 10M heart rate, but the last couple felt a tad harder than that. I think I'm just more aerobically fit than fast at the moment. Anyway, I think 6:30 per mile is possible (40:23). Now, of course, the gears spin and I think "Gee. That's damn close to 40:00!" 40? No way. That's a distant dream goal. First BQ, then sub-1:30 HM, then sub-40. We'll see. I'll be happy with anything under 41 (ideal course and weather).