I just checked the forecast and the overnight low on Saturday is only 70. Wunderground says 72 with a dew point of 68 at 8am. Well, I'm not going to run very fast in that. I'm throwing sub-1:30 completely out the window. My waistline was enough to rule that out, but the weather seals it. 1:31:30 sounds nice (6:59 pace), but that would be tough on a perfect day. 1:32:28 (7:04 pace) is what mcmillan calls equivalent to a 3:15. That might be something to shoot for, but with a dew point near 70, I wouldn't bet on it. My PR (last year's race) is 1:33:28.
I was hoping to get a good fitness check, but this won't be it. Now I'm not sure what to do with this thing. I guess I'll still race it, but what's the point. I might run a small PR over last year (when the weather was perfect). Is that worth the impact on training and potential for injury? Blech.