In mid-April of 2005 I ran 1:24:49 at around 185 lbs as I recall. That's a 51.8% age performance which translates to a 1:36:28 for a 52 year old, which seems like a reasonable place to start with goals (although I'm targeting a Sept 10 miler that's hilly and likely to be hot).
A stretch goal would be to avoid a personal worst, which was 1:28 something. I ran that at 190+ running less than 10 miles a week and I don't think I really raced it. Just wanted to get my 10-th cherry blossom finish so I could avoid the lottery in the future.
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